As the war between the US and Iran enters its fifth month, how have events unfolded since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on 17 June? The MOU declared the immediate end and permanent termination of military operations and the removal of the US’s naval blockade of Iran as well as requiring Iran to support the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz with no charge for 60 days. While the agreement was signed to much fanfare, recent developments shed doubt on claims of progress or peace.
Tit-for-tat strikes
Tension has been growing between the two sides since the signing of the agreement with both parties accusing the other of violating the ceasefire and breaking the principles agreed on. The MOU’s first point about the termination of military operations appeared to be broken on Thursday 25 June when a Singapore-flagged cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an Iranian projectile. Tehran said that the vessel had been using an unauthorised route to transit the waterway. The event led the International Maritime Organisation to pause its efforts to evacuate the 11,000 seafarers stranded on vessels in the Strait.
President Donald Trump accused Iran of a “foolish violation” of the agreement on Truth Social. Tehran did not respond directly but Iranian state media reported fresh assertions from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that the Strait is Iran’s territory. In response, the US military conducted strikes on missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar sites in Iran. Following the strikes, Vice President JD Vance said on X that the US had honoured the ceasefire agreement but that “violence will be met with violence”. The Iranian navy met those US strikes with strikes of their own on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. An additional vessel, a Panama-flagged tanker, was hit by an Iranian drone on Saturday 27 June.
On Sunday 28 June, a US official said that both sides agreed to “stand down for now” and allow the free movement of vessels.
In the early hours of Tuesday 7 July, just as this article went to print, a tanker was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman while travelling south out of the Strait of Hormuz. Specific details, as of yet, are unclear.
Hormuz crossings
Despite the recent attacks, the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Clear figures are hard to find due to the rise of ‘dark voyages’, whereby ships turn off their GPS signal to avoid detection, however some figures report the number of transits into and out of the Gulf to total 258 in the week up to 28 June. This is significantly higher than the 41 vessels that crossed in the first week of march after the conflict broke out but still down from the average 945 vessels that transited the strait weekly before the war.
Despite the rise in crossings, 500-600 ships remain stranded, many weighing up the dangers of sailing through the Strait of Hormuz against the economic impact on global trade of staying put. Crossing the Strait has been made doubly difficult by, not only Iranian attacks but, the presence of mines that have effectively closed the main central route through the Strait, forcing ships to take one of only two passable routes. One route involves a northern trajectory close to the Iranian coast, running the risk of ships being seized by Iran, or a Southern route, established by the US, along the Omani coast. Both options require ships to sail in shallow waters, introducing a risk of running aground. Even if avoiding mines, ships remain in danger since vessels on ‘ghost voyages’ cannot be avoided by demining operations if they are not traceable. The lack of a GPS signal also increases the risk of ships colliding with one another. Pre-war shipping levels likely cannot recommence until an estimated 80 mines are cleared from the waterway.
Furthermore, discussions have taken place between Iran and Oman regarding a joint proposal, presented to the US, to impose administrative fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The introduction of a transit toll would be a violation of international law however an Omani diplomat asserted the fee would be voluntary, similar to that of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore where voluntary contributions are collected for safe navigation. Conversely, an Iranian official claimed that the fee would be obligatory, in line with Iran’s insistence, since the initial closure of the Strait, that crossings would be monetised. Another Iranian official emphasised the fee as a service charge for security, supervision and to remedy the environmental impact of shipping rather than a toll. The US’s stance on charging voluntary fees is, as yet, unclear but it has opposed the charging of mandatory tolls or service fees, with President Trump calling the idea “unacceptable“.
Negotiations
Talks took place the week of 29 June in Qatar however no joint decisions or significant updates were announced and precise details of the talks remain unclear. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner travelled to Doha for indirect technical talks with mediators from Qatar but the Iranian and American sides did not meet directly. Iran’s top negotiators, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, were not in attendance, instead Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was headed the Iranian team in the talks.
Mr Gharibabadi briefed the Iranian media that two rounds of meetings had been held: one addressing the US’s “violations of its obligations” resulting in a decision to establish a communication channel between the two sides for dispute resolution and a second meeting to discuss the possible release of $6bn of frozen Iranian funds. The US side briefed the media that discussions addressed the Strait of Hormuz, the frozen funds and the conflict in Lebanon, and stated that both sides had agreed to “stand down” and halt attacks.
Funeral of Ayatollah Khameini
In the days following the Doha talks and over the weekend of 4-5 July, no significant updates emerged, due to to the multi-day funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei taking place across Iran and Iraq. President Trump confirmed that the funeral meant negotiations would be paused for a week. Interesting details to note from the event include the world leaders and their representatives that attended the funeral, including the Prime Minister of Pakistan, a key player in the US-Iran negotiations, as well as the Prime Minister of Armenia and Presidents of Tajikistan and Georgia. Senior government officials from India, China, Türkiye, Russia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh were also scheduled to pay their respects. Notably, Iran’s current Supreme Leader, the late Ayatollah’s son Mojtaba, is not in attendance, allegedly due to security concerns.
Massive crowds numbering in the millions filled the streets for Khamenei’s funeral in a show of orchestrated national mourning, a spectacle that Donald Trump publicly dismissed as politically manufactured. He added that he was surprised to see Iranians joining in such numbers and weeping, saying “I thought they hated him” and speculating “Perhaps they are fake tears.”
Featured image shows the Strait of Hormuz and Musandam Peninsula. Image was taken by NASA and is in the US Public Domain, found via Wikimedia Commons.
