As the crisis enters its eleventh year, its prolonged nature continues to destabilise society, and pose significant risks to countless lives. Ukraine’s aspiration for a fully sovereign state appears increasingly distant. Given critical developments over the past three months, including renewed diplomatic engagements led by the United States, it has become imperative to re-examine the crisis and its potential avenues for resolution.

Current Escalations and Humanitarian Implications

In recent months, Ukraine has suffered severe winter power shortages resulting from Russia’s intensified attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Russia’s ongoing territorial claims have further heightened tensions. The full-scale military intervention launched on 24 February 2022 began from the outset with widespread missile strikes across major Ukrainian cities. Today, Russian forces are advancing within and around strategically essential locations, such as Pokrovsk, aiming to seize additional territory while Kyiv faces mounting pressure to consider a U.S.-backed peace proposal that would require painful concessions. As Russia threatens Ukraine’s remaining eastern “fortress belt,” it currently occupies approximately 19% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and significant portions of the east and southeast. Although the Russian military sought a rapid victory, it encountered determined Ukrainian resistance and confronted substantial logistical failures, including shortages of basic supplies.

Human Costs and Military Toll

The human toll of this conflict has been devastating. In December 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported 43,000 Ukrainian military deaths, a hugely conservative figure. Independent Ukrainian war correspondent Yuri Butusov said in December 2024 that his army sources estimated some 70,000 dead and 35,000 missing. The Next Century Foundation estimates that current numbers of Ukraine war dead one more year on, including those missing, are approaching 200,000. Russia, too, has experienced substantial losses, though it has not announced any casualty figures. Russian independent outlets like Mediazona and Meduza have been documenting confirmed deaths by name through obituaries, social media, and official records. By December 2025, Mediazona had documented around 136,000 confirmed deaths by name. Another source is Russian court records. By December 2025, Russian courts had received almost 90,000 claims seeking to have servicemen declared dead or missing. The Next Century Foundation estimates current levels of Russian war dead as approaching 300,000. The continued targeting of energy and transportation infrastructure underscores Russia’s escalating strategy, deepening Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis during the winter months. These actions not only inflict immense suffering but also underscore the power imbalance, given Russia´s greater population and greater capacity to reaarm. Lives, infrastructure, and national resources remain at stake, and Ukraine continues to face political and symbolic humiliation.

Recent Peace Initiatives and Political Dynamics

The United States has recently re-entered peace negotiations with an approach widely perceived as more aligned with Russian interests. President Trump, having returned to office with promises to end the war swiftly, has shifted U.S. policy away from unconditional support for Kyiv and towards acknowledging aspects of Russia’s justification for its storming of Ukraine in 2022.
Under the initial peace proposal, jointly drafted by U.S. and Russian officials, Ukraine would cede control of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, as well as the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukrainian forces would also be required to withdraw from the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk, which would then become a demilitarised zone under de facto Russian control. Ukraine unequivocally rejected this proposal. Given this impasse, Ukraine has since presented its refined peace plan, seeking a viable pathway to end this four-year phase of the broader conflict.

Key provisions in the revised plan from Ukraine (which US President Donald Trump seemingly does not like) include:

• Creation of a demilitarized zone along the line of contact
• Security guarantees for Ukraine in line with NATO’s Article 5 (mutual defense)
• Proposed membership for Ukraine in the European Union by 2027 (note interestingly that Russia has no objection to this point)
• Removal of language barring Ukraine from ever joining NATO, though it doesn’t explicitly mention potential membership
• A military personnel cap of 800,000 on Ukraine’s armed forces
• New provisions regarding territorial arrangements and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Way Forward

There is no single, immediate solution that can deliver lasting peace, and a ceasefire alone cannot resolve the underlying geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, several potential pathways warrant consideration.

One possible approach is to establish an armistice, accompanied by a mutually recognised territorial arrangement. And exploring shared sovereignty models, similar to the Northern Ireland context, where residents navigate complex territorial identities and may hold dual citizenship as they choose. Applying this logic to the Donbas region, an agreed armistice line could allow residents to determine their own de facto alignment while enabling societies on both sides to move forward. This is the approach that the Next Century Foundation advocates. Achieving a sustainable peace will require calibrated diplomacy, respect for territorial integrity, and innovative arrangements that account for the political realities on both sides. While the path ahead is challenging, a carefully negotiated framework offers a potential starting point toward restoring stability and coexistence.