Almost two months have passed since Biden’s ceasefire proposal, yet the hostilities remain. These are the latest developments regarding the Israel – Hamas War, during the time from the 23rd June till the 15th of July, 2024.
A little context
On June 10th the United Nations Security Council, adopted Resolution 2735 (2024), which backed the United State’s President Biden’s ceasefire proposal for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. A lot of controversy surrounded the proposal, as both Hamas and Israel seemed to be unwilling to come around the table and reach a compromise. However, both sides claimed their willingness and rhetorically supported the ceasefire respectively.
Another important event was a claim made by Israel’s Premier Benjamin Netanyahu against the United States, accusing them of withholding weaponry and artillery, that would aid Israel’s army carry on the war against Hamas. This video statement on Tuesday 18th June, 2024 was a direct “attack” on Biden’s Administration. The alleged weaponry is 2,000-pound bombs, according to the U.S. Secretary of State – Antony Blinken, that were indeed withheld as there were serious concerns about their use in Rafah. This was a significant move on Netanyahu’s part as he not only openly challenged the US, but he also determined Yoav Gallant’s agenda in his meeting with his US counterparts that took place on June 24th.
Yoav Gallant’s visit to Washington affirmed that despite the video statement of the Israel’s Premier, the relationship of the U.S. and Israel still holds strong. The strong bonds between the two countries are also “confirmed” by the revelation of the enormous amounts of money the U.S. provided to Israel for defense purposes. According to the Washington Post, the United States has provided $6.5 billion to Israel since October 7, with $3 billion approved in May.
Meanwhile, tensions continue to escalate in northern Israel, as the Lebanese Shiite Muslim and Iran-backed political party, Hezbollah, launched one of the biggest drone and rocket attacks against Israel, during the past week. The attacks intensified significantly after Israel’s airstrike that claimed the life of a senior Hezbollah commander. Hezbollah threatened to attack Haifa, something that worked in favor of a change in tactics by Israel, moving its troops to the northern part of the country, in order to deal with Hezbollah, who seemed to have successfully penetrated the defenses provided by Israel’s Air Force.
However, in order for Israel’s future plans to mobilise forces, the country seems to be in dire need of fresh troops, who could likely come from the ultra-orthodox yeshiva students, as Israel’s top court ruled in favour of the drafting of ultra-orthodox Jews, a bill that passed the Knesset almost two weeks ago.
Another interesting development was that in the recent British General Elections, the Israeli-Palestinian war was an electoral catalyst in some cases, as political figures secured a place within the British Parliament, in cities with a high Muslim populations, after expressing pro-Palestinian positions. For example, one of the most remarkable turnovers was Jonathan Ashworth, the party’s shadow Cabinet Office minister, who lost his Leicester South seat to the Shockat Adam. In Blackburn, Labour’s Kate Hollern lost by to the independent Adnan Hussain.
Ultra-Orthodox Jews to the Army
After decades of exemption, the ultra-orthodox Jews will now be slowly, but progressively drafted in military, as Israel’s Top Court ruled in favor of the mandatory enlistment, not recognizing a law that prohibits the students of Jewish seminaries to join the military forces. In order to exert more pressure on the yeshivas, the court ordered the state to cease the funding of those yeshivas, who avoid their military service. However, religious women are exempt by law. This ruling is of major importance, as the exemption of ultra-orthodox Jews was a source of political fragmentation for decades. The court found that the state was carrying out “invalid selective enforcement, which represents a serious violation of the rule of law, and the principle according to which all individuals are equal before the law.”
Why is the conscription law of such importance? Firstly, the far-right parties of the governmental coalition are not in favor of this change, and for example Yitzhak Goldknopf, head of the United Torah Judaism party and housing minister in Netanyahu’s cabinet, commented on it as “an expected but very unfortunate and disappointing decision”, making a fall-out an expected scenario to happen in the coalition, shaking the current government. But, with the increase in conscripts, the sentiment of unjust sharing of the burden spread within the Jewish society. Mandatory Military service is for Jewish Israelis aged 18 – three years for men and two for women – while Arab Israelis are exempt along with the ultra-orthodox Jews. The latter make up 13% of the 10 million Israeli population and they are a social group with the highest birth rates in the population. While 66,000 are eligible to serve, the military stated that is capable of enlisting 3,000 this year. Despite the evident gains the conscription law will have for the military operations, a mass protest was held, on June 30th by Ultra-orthodox Jews that opposed the decision, with protesters causing some upheaval in the streets and pelting Haredi Minister’s – Yitzchak Goldknopf’s car.
Ceasefire Negotiations
Things got more complicated, as Israel’s Premier stated on Sunday 23rd, on an Israeli conservative and pro-governmental station – Channel 14, that Israel does not accept the ceasefire deal, but is willing to agree to a partial ceasefire, which however, under no circumstances would end the war.
This validated Hamas’ suspicions on the true nature of Israel’s intentions towards the ceasefire, with Izzat al-Rishq – a Hamas senior leader stating that: “Netanyahu’s true stance is to avoid reaching an agreement to continue the war of ‘genocide’ on Gaza”, while pressuring the US to substantially take a position on the matter, by exerting power over the Israeli government to adopt the ceasefire and stop the war.
After facing criticism both externally and domestically, Netanyahu revoked his statement regarding the partial ceasefire, claiming that Israel is fully aligned with a plan that would guarantee peace. As his original statement for a partial peace did not emphasize the hostage’s situation, Israelis and especially the hostages’ families: “condemned any suggestion of a withdrawal without securing the return of all hostages”. On Monday 24th June, Netanyahu stated that: “Israel will not end the conflict “until we bring back all the hostages, all 120 of them – both the living and the fallen” and until Hamas is “eliminated” and the residents in southern and northern Israel can safely return to their homes.
On July 1st IDF and Shin Bet has released 50 Gaza prisoners and amongst them was the al-Shifa’s hospital former director, Muhammad Abu Salmiya. His release was the matter of conflict within the Israeli government. Benny Gantz, who resigned last month commented that: “whoever made this decision lacks judgment and should be fired today.” Ben Gvir, blamed the Shin Bet and especially its head – Ronen Bar, whom he demanded to be fired. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other top government politicians slammed Ben Gvir, from the extremist Otzma Yehudit faction, and backed Shin Bet head Ronen Bar against the attack. Abu Salmiya’s release was a subject of lots of controversy, due to the fact that the Hospital in Shifa, was in fact a shelter for Hamas and its activities, as the Israeli government claims. Netanyahu supported that the call was made independently by security agencies, while he ordered an investigation on the matter.
While still claiming Israel’s support towards the ceasefire plan, Netanyahu clearly stated that Israel is not backing down from eliminating Hamas indefinitely. As this claim is now out in the open, Hamas made a clear statement [mostly] towards the US asking them to be more active on the matter. In Gallant’s visit in the US, Antony Blinken updated the Israeli Defense Minister on the ongoing diplomatic efforts for a stabilized post-war environment in Gaza, that would also work in favor of Israel’s security.
Conclusively, no progress whatsoever was made towards a peaceful solution, based on the ceasefire plan, in all the talks with the mediators (US, Qatar and Egypt) that might have allowed the hostage and prisoner swap between Israel and the Palestinians. Now, the situation revolves around the increasing tension between Hezbollah and Israel, with Israel announcing that the intense phase with Hamas is nearing an end, cause its decision that the Israeli Army will gather and move towards the northern border for defence purposes, they claim, towards Hezbollah.
On July 2nd Israel stricked in Khan Younis, in Southern Gaza, killing eight people. After this latest attack, Israel ordered that the Palestinians should evacuate the city, with more than 25,000 people getting dislocated once more. This attack provoked the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s reaction, who said that they: “launched the barrage in response to Israeli “crimes”.”
On late Wednesday, July 4th, Israel received the latest response of Hamas regarding the truce-hostage deal, after its leader Ismail Haniyeh had spoken with mediators in Qatar and Egypt regarding the ideas being discussed. Hamas also added that talks have also been held with Turkish officials concerning the recent developments. Israel decided to study the response in a Cabinet meeting on Thursday the 5th before making taking any action forward. The U.S. welcomed the response, especially after the negotiations seemingly had faltered, as no side fully embraces the ceasefire plan. President Biden and President Netanyahu held a phonecall on Thursday the 5th that concluded with Netanyahu announcing to the American President that they will send “a delegation to continue the hostage negotiations and reiterated the principles that Israel is committed to, especially its commitment to end the war only after all of its goals have been achieved”, while stressing that Israel is still committed to both the return of the remaining hostaages, but also the battling of Hamas, until the latter is no longer a threat to Israel’s security. Ronen Bar – the head of Shin Bet, led the delegation to Egypt on Monday 8th July for the ceasefire negotiations. However, President Netanyahu stated on Sunday 7th that a nonnegotiable demand – and a clear Israeli statement – that after the hostages’ release, the war will resume until Israel has reached its military goal of Hamas’ complete annihilation. The demands also read that smuggling of weapons from Egypt to Gaza will not be tolerated, as well as “the return of of thousands of armed terrorists to the north of the Gaza Strip” is not allowed. Netanyahu also stated that: ” “Israel will maximize the number of living hostages returned from Hamas captivity.”
On Sunday 7th , Hamas dropped its demand for an upfront commitment by Israel for a permanent ceasefire, as a part of a ceasefire deal. Netanyahu attributed this diplomatic achievement to the harsh offensive of the past two months in Rafah, as a catalyst for Hamas to come around the table. A Hamas official verified this change of stance by explaining that: “this step was bypassed, as the mediators pledged that as long as the [hostage negotiations continued, the ceasefire would continue].”
During the attacks that took place during the first two weeks of July, 2024 in Gaza Strip, the Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on July 10th that the Israeli army had “eliminated or wounded 60%” of Hamas fighters, after nine months of war with the Palestinian Islamist movement in the Gaza Strip, calling it a military “success.” Hamas said on Thursday 11th July, that the mediators did not provide them any updates regarding the progress on cease-fire negotiations that are taking place in Doha, Qatar. As a response to the harsh offensive that is taking place in Gaza, and after the evacuation order that Israeli gave on Sunday 7th July, Hamas supported that such actions threatens to return the negotiating process to “point zero.“ More specifically, Hamas senior official Hossam Badran told AFP that Israel “is trying to pressure negotiations by intensifying bombing operations, displacement, and committing massacres”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised Israel’s commitment to a deal as long as its “red lines are preserved”.
However, both Israeli and U.S. officials seem to be more optimistic on the new negotiation’s round that is proceeding in Doha. The negotiations resumed on Wednesday 10th of July, 2024, with the CIA head Bill Burns meeting with top Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials. Hamas demands for written commitments from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar that negotiations over the second phase of the deal will continue, with no time limit, while the first phase of the deal is underway. Israel believes the issue can and should be resolved during the talks in Doha in order to proceed to detailed negotiations on the implementation of the agreement, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. But overall progress seems to be made during this round of negotiations. Israeli delegation has reportedly left Doha [11th July] and returned to Israel for consultations with the Israeli leadership. Hamas supports that Israel stalls for time, which is maybe linked to Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to U.S., where he will give a speech at the Congress, upon invitation of both Democrats and Republicans, on July 24th, 2024.
After the Israeli delegation left on Wednesday, it was scheduled to travel on Thursday 12th July, to Cairo in order to discuss security matters elated to Gaza. A senior Israeli official said that progress had been made in Doha in identifying the areas negotiators had reached agreement and where sticking points remain. One of the remaining obstacles, reported Walla, is the return of Palestinians in Gaza to the northern part of the enclave. Hamas wants free passage for all Gaza residents, but Israel insists on a means of preventing Hamas militants from moving around freely. The U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday (12th) that the negotiators have made progress toward a deal between the two parties, but warned that an agreement is not imminent. “The signs are more positive today than they have been in recent months,” Sullivan told reporters, adding, “There’s still miles to go before we close — if we are able to close.”
On 14th of July and after the Israeli delegation returned to Israel, to consult with the government, it was announced that the British Foreign Secretary David Lammy will visit both Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, marking the first visit to the Middle East, after taking post just a few weeks back. Lammy is also expected to announce that the UK will allocate an additional £5.5 million ($7.5 million) this year to UK-Med to support their life-saving operations in Gaza.
Israel vs Hezbollah – The tension escalates
Hezbollah’s offensive against Israel dates back to the start of the war with Hamas, on October 7th, 2023, when Hezbollah was caught off-guard by the Hamas attack on the day. It started attacking Israel immediately after Israel started its reprisal bombing of Gaza. The Iran-backed Shiite Muslim group has vowed to continue with the strikes for as long as Israel continues the war in Gaza. Israel claims that it will perform an attack in Lebanon with “never used before” weaponry and promises that it will turn “Beirut into Gaza”. On the other hand, Hezbollah possesses new weaponry and has developed a new strategy during the recent weeks, including a surface-to-air missile, which successfully forced an Israeli fighter jet to retreat, being the first time the group impacted the Israeli air force. Besides the weaponry in their possession, Hezbollah claims to have volunteers available from other Middle Eastern and Asian Nations, who wish to participate in the war against Israel.
The feud between Lebanon and Israel is nothing but new, as both sides have historically been attacking one another, reinforced by statements made by Israeli government officials like Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security Minister), who called for “Hezbollah “strongholds” to be burned”, or a comment Yoav Gallant made, two months before the Gaza war broke out that: “Israel would return Lebanon to the Stone Age”. Based on the latter, Finance Minister Bezalel Smortitch said: “A year ago, the defense minister said that we will send Lebanon back to the Stone Age. Mr. Prime Minister, Mr. Defense Minister, Mr. Chief of Staff: That time has come”. Hezbollah has clearly stated that it won’t agree to a ceasefire with Israel, before a ceasefire with Gaza is agreed.
The US grows concerned by the escalation of the tension between the two parties and warns of the disastrous outcomes, such an escalation would have. Netanyahu, on his Channel 14 interview said that they hope for a diplomatic solution to the problem, but he vowed to proceed to solving the crisis in “any different way”, if diplomacy doesn’t work. The US advise Israel to de-escalate, as there is a concrete concern that this crisis could lead to a broader regional war, with Iran responding to back up Hezbollah – something that would endanger the US forces in the region. Additionally, Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. won’t likely be able to help Israel defend itself against a broader Hezbollah war as well as it helped Israel fight off an Iranian barrage of missiles and drones in April.
Previous to that [approx. a week before the 25th] President Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein told Lebanese officials Hezbollah is wrong to think the U.S. would be able to stop Israel from invading Lebanon if the militia continues its attacks. In his Washington visit, Yoav Gallant said to Hochstein that: “a halt of Hezbollah firing would not satisfy Israel and that the group would need to withdraw a substantial distance from the border area. Hochstein, in his trip to Beirut clearly stated the US stance on the matter, in a meeting with various Lebanese officials (such as the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati etc.), claiming that: “President Biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater war” However, U.S. intelligence estimates that a war could break out in the upcoming weeks, while some Europeans estimate that it’s a matter of days.
Hezbollah has launched an attack at the city of Nabatiyeh and village Sohmor, targeting the air and missile defence base of Israel. All in all, more than 450 people, mostly fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups but also more than 80 civilians and noncombatants, have been killed on Lebanon’s side, and 16 soldiers and 11 civilians on Israel’s. Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides of the border, as attacks from and to both sides keep taking place, while there is no immediate prospect for the return of the displaced population.
Humanitarian Conditions in Gaza
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues, as Israel keeps on with the heavy attacks in Palestine. A report came through on Monday 24th June, from the British aid group “Save the Children”, in which it is stated that the estimated number of missing children in Gaza is approximately 21,000. The actual number is hard to define as there are children beneath the rubble and also, an unknown number of children are believed to be in the mass graves. Around 17,000 are believed to be unaccompanied minors and thus separated from their families, while 14,000 children have been killed since October 7th, according to data from UNICEF.
UNICEF also states that a lot of children face malnutrition and starvation. Indeed, as proven by a draft UN Report, a high risk of famine remains in the region, as more than half of the households sell or swap their belongings for food. 1/5th of the population – more than 495,000 people – face acute food insecurity, despite the fact that the humanitarian aid distribution improved during March and April. In May things started to decline rapidly again, after the Israeli attacks in Rafah. Also, humanitarian aid was more accessible to the north, rather than in the south of Palestine. Israel claimed that it allows hundreds of trucks to enter and that there are multiple containers at Kerem Shalom, whereas UN agencies claim that they cannot have access, due to the unsafe environment.
The US announced on X that the military has delivered more than 1,000 metric tons of food aid over its temporary pier at the Gazan coast over the weekend. However, one U.N. senior official has warned Israel that the World will suspend the aid operations until Israel improves the safety conditions of the humanitarian workers. The U.S. pier delivered more than 8,100 metric tons, or nearly 20 million pounds, of food to Gazans caught in the crossfire of the Israel-Hamas war, in total. The White House and the Defense Department both said the pier will cease operations “soon” but would not specify timing, after failed attempts for its installation. President Biden has expressed his disappointment regarding the pier not standing up to their expectations.
During the past days, the first two weeks of July, and despite the ongoing negotiation efforts that curently took place in Doha, the Israeli government carries out a bloody offensive in Gaza Strip claiming the lives of dozens of people. The Israeli army withdraws from the Shujayea district in Gaza’s City, after the end of the “first round” of harsh offensive accross the Gaza Strip. On Wednesday 10th of July, leaflets flooded the Gaza Strip advising the remaining [a bit more than a-quarter-million] Palestinians to evacuate, instructing them to move Southia via designated safe routes – marked as two roads that lead to shelters in Deir al-Balah and al-Zawaida. The U.N. state that they are overly concerned about the evacuation order, as it is the second time, in the span of the 10-month conflict, that Israel demanded the full evacuation of Gaza City. Israel carried out its warning and and heavily attacked Gaza City at the early hours of Sunday (14th of July), roughly a day after Israel had announced that the primary target was now Mohammed Deif, who is believed to be the mastermind behind Oct. 7th attack; which was the cause of the deadly attack in in Khan Younis, Southern Gaza [where it was believed that he was located] killing more than 90 and killing more than 300 people. Among the people killed during the offensive yesterday, there were several children after hiting another U.N. School in Nuseirat refugee camp, which is supposedly a safe space for Palestinians. The U.N’s top expert on human rights in Palestine condemned the Israeli military as it resorted to a familiar excuse for the killing of nearly 100 Palestinians on Saturday in an area that had been designated as a “humanitarian zone”
At least 90 people were killed on Saturday after Israel struck al-Mawasi areas considered a safe zone. In the past 24 hours (13-14th July), at least 141 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza City, including 20 people praying outside a ruined mosque in the Shati refugee camp and many more bodies likely buried under the rubble of Gaza’s destroyed buildings.
More than half, or 190, facilities run by UNRWA, the main relief agency in Gaza, have been bombed by Israeli military – “some more than once”. The European Union, France and Germany on Wednesday called for an investigation into the school strikes. the
1 million people were expected to starve by mid-July. Starvation is a major issue that Palestinians will likely face in the upcoming weeks if the current situation continues. Israel’s war on Gaza has killed approximately [at least] 38,664 people have been killed and 89,097 wounded, while the death toll in Israel from the Hamas-led attacks on October 7 is estimated at 1,139, and dozens of people are still held captive in Gaza. The territory has been completely devastated by Israel’s air strikes, which have collaterally targeted residential areas, schools, hospitals, and other civilian facilities.
