The Next Century Foundation is deeply concerned by the renewed conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, which has once again threatened the tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians in the region. More than 42,000 people, around ¼ of the local population, have so far been forced into Armenia by what the Armenian Prime Minister has described as the beginning of an ethnic cleansing.
With last week’s military campaign by the Azerbaijan government to reaffirm their control over the area stretching between lower Karabakh and Syunik, a campaign lasting some 24 hours, fresh issues have arisen regarding the sovereignty of the area. For ten months, the region has been victim to an economic blockade by Azerbaijan, putting the some 120,000 ethnic Armenians at risk of famine and destitution. Instead of seeking remedies for the 30-year-long tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijan government has called for the dissolution of all political entities in the territory, including the local presidency, mayor, and parliament, and is not offering any levels of political devolution that have been seen in similar conflicts within Europe in recent decades. In fact, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, reminded Armenians living in Karabakh that any earlier offer of status had “gone to hell”, and any local political institutions that have been built within the region since 1991 will not be permitted to remain.
A friend to the West?
The resource-rich Caucasus country of Azerbaijan has consistently promoted itself to the EU and US as a reliable security partner and a vital hub of transport, but its renewed military offensive in the region has reignited fears of full-scale conflict. Monday’s explosion at a gas station at Stepanakert, which left 68 dead and 300 injured, with a further 105 people still missing, has escalated concerns that the remaining population is at risk of injury or death if they choose to remain in the region, and the presidential aide for the region, David Babayan, has said initial information points to sabotage being the likely cause. US national security spokesperson Adrienne Watson has said the US is ready to provide additional assistance to local communities and has urged Azerbaijan to refrain from further hostilities in the region, particularly given that some 90% of the population is ethnically Armenian. If further escalation of the conflict takes place, it is inevitable that greater numbers of refugees may seek shelter in Europe rather than in Armenia itself, shifting the focus of European concern towards a question of refugee status for Armenian Karabakh’s.
Previous peace efforts have been mediated largely by the OSCE Minsk Group, a coalition organisation chaired by the United States, Russia, and France, initially set up in 1992 in response to the first Nagorno-Karabakh War and largely overseen by Russia given the region was previously under the administration of the Soviet Union. In recent years however, in view of Russia’s pre-occupation with its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Moscow’s guarantees of peace in the region have become void; instead Moscow was brokering a deal whereby the local population would agree to disassemble their “defence forces” and begin talks over the total reintegration of the region into Azerbaijan. This in spite of local desires to be either recognised as an independent breakaway state or to be integrated into the Armenian state.
Envoys from both Azerbaijan and Armenia are due to meet in Brussels soon in talks backed by the EU, with hopes for a lasting peace agreement to be reached. The renewed conflict not only puts at risk the Armenian population living within Nagorno-Karabakh; it also undermines the prospect of lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Renewed efforts by the EU and US to secure political and social stability are necessary if peace is to be reached in this now volatile region, and to ensure Europe is not flung into a new frontier of their migrant catastrophe.
