On 6 September 2026, the world woke up to news of a major victory for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Saxony-Anhalt state elections. The AfD won 43.8% of the votes and 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament, falling just three seats short of an absolute majority. Those familiar with Germany’s internal situation, especially after recent election results, were not entirely surprised by the outcome. The AfD’s rise did not begin with the Saxony-Anhalt election. In the 2021 federal election, the party received 10.3% of the vote, while in the 2025 federal election, its share had almost doubled to 20.8%, giving it 152 seats in the Bundestag and making it the second-largest party, demonstrating the extent to which the party had expanded its electoral support. However, how quickly the latest result was discussed was striking. Much of the attention focused on what an increasingly powerful AfD could mean for Germany and Europe. What if the AfD were eventually to enter federal government? What would the future hold for Germany and for the European Union if a party that is widely described as extremely far-right were to govern Europe’s largest country? And what about the Russia-Ukraine war? Would an AfD-influenced government change Germany’s current position towards Ukraine and Russia? These are, naturally, legitimate concerns. Yet, perhaps another question deserves just as much attention: why has the AfD been steadily gaining support in the first place? The rise of the far right is not unique to Germany; it has become a wider European phenomenon. But in Germany, the AfD has now been part of the political landscape for more than a decade, and its electoral growth can no longer be treated as a temporary protest vote or an isolated phenomenon. At the end of the day, the AfD is not an outsider in German politics anymore.
The East-West Divide
It is not easy to convince a German citizen who has lived in a unified, democratic Germany for decades to vote for a populist party, which is frequently labeled extremist and exclusionary. But perhaps it is easier to understand how the same voter could become disillusioned with the policies of Germany’s traditional parties, particularly when those policies appear to be contributing to rising living costs, economic pressures, and more immigrants who are going to benefit from the German social system. The economic sector is really critical; German companies are under growing pressure nowadays from other competitors, especially Chinese companies, not only with more affordable prices but also with higher quality and increasing innovation. The economy plays an important role in the rise of the Right, but other factors are also important to highlight. One is that the AfD’s win in Saxony-Anhalt reflects how many people in the eastern states have long felt they were treated as second-class citizens and not accorded the same recognition as those in the West. This feeling has endured for more than three decades since reunification, particularly for those who feel that the experience and identity of East Germans have been overlooked while building a unified Germany. Thus, it is not surprising that some voters have moved toward parties that present themselves as defenders of their identity, giving them a sense of recognition and belonging while affirming their identity as Germans first. This appeal to identity can also be seen in the language used by AfD leaders, including the slogan “Wir sind das Volk” (“We are the people”), which invokes a particular understanding of who belongs to the German Volk and who does not.
The Political Firewall
One factor contributing to the rise of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party and the growing influence of the far right is the so-called “firewall” adopted by the traditional parties. This was also evident after the 2025 federal election, when the AfD received 20.8% of the vote and won 152 seats in the Bundestag, making it the second-largest party in the parliament, yet it was not included in the coalition government formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD. The strategy aimed to prevent the AfD from joining any governing coalitions, even in states where it garnered significant support in local elections. In reality, this approach reinforced the party’s grievance narrative, allowing it to portray itself as challenging an establishment that excludes it from decision-making; this dynamic, in turn, has contributed to the radicalization of the party’s rhetoric and promises. For instance, it is easy to promise curbs on immigration or adopt a hardline stance on refugees in opposition, but converting those pledges once in power, when confronted with the country’s demographic realities, is far more complicated than issuing high-sounding statements or campaign slogans. This principle applies to other policy areas as well; the process of national policymaking differs radically when a party is actively involved in government and decision-making. The same may be true of the AfD. If the party had entered government, it would have been subject to many of the same institutional, financial, and political constraints as other governing parties, and it would have been difficult for it to deliver on all its promises. Such compromises may have affected the popularity of the party among the voters.
History as a Warning
If you think the Next Century Foundation supports the AfD based on what we have written so far, you are completely mistaken. Adolf Hitler, one of the most infamous far-right, fascist leaders in history, did not come to power through a military coup but rather through Germany’s legal political power. People gravitated toward the man they believed would liberate them from the burdens of the Treaty of Versailles. To avoid repeating that same mistake today, we must not counter the AfD and its extremist ideas with far-left extremism; on the contrary, we need to bridge divides, re-examine policies that have accumulated over the years, and adopt genuine, serious reforms, rather than simply trying to isolate the party or relying on a “firewall” solely to prevent it from joining a governing coalition.
