After weeks of debates, speeches, press statements and back room negotiations, we are now down to the final three candidates left in the race to become leader of the Conservative Party. After the vote later today, we will have our final two candidates, who will then make up the ballot that will be mailed to Conservative Party members across the country for them to have the final say on who they want as leader and therefore the next Prime Minister of the UK.
Whilst over the past two days it seemed almost a foregone conclusion that Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch would be eliminated, predicting who will get into the top two is trickier. In the round of voting yesterday, Kemi received the support of 59 MPs who now have to decide which of the remaining candidates they want to support.
Though Kemi was largely seen as being on the right of the party, she was also seen to have an independent streak to her that appealed to some MPs who might not be traditional right-wing Conservatives. It is wrong to assume that her supporters are necessarily as right wing as her, and so there could be some surprises when the results come out later on how much each of the candidates increased their support by.
Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak is the candidate in the lead, and the candidate who has been leading for the entirety of the hustings. He is likely to go through to the membership vote, though according to polling of Conservative Party Members, both of the other candidates would comfortably beat him in a head-to-head vote.
Sunak’s campaign already seems to be tilting towards the membership vote, with strong defences of his increase of National Insurance to fund public services. As the former Chancellor during the Pandemic, Sunak has the most baggage when it comes to domestic issues. Some Conservatives were opposed to his spending, which has been seen as reckless or as enabling the growth of a British ‘big state’. He has now come down on the side of ‘fiscal responsibility’, not wanting to cut taxes until inflation is under control.
The economy has been seen as Sunak’s biggest strength and weakness, as he is knowledgeable about it and he does wield some respect for his handling of the Pandemic economy but there are questions about whether he is responsible for the current cost of living crisis. Sunak seems determined to bring about a green economy for the UK, but there is scepticism on how much this is based on substantial policy or whether it is based on sloganeering. Sunak’s campaign seems to depend on whether he can persuade his party to believe in his economic ideology.
Sunak’s foreign policy is economically focussed. In the debates he cautiously supported trade with China, as long as the trade didn’t threaten national security. This hints at some of the issues at letting Chinese companies like Huawei be involved in the roll-out of 5G in the UK. Though he did say he supported the way Britain had helped Hong Kongers, there has been little mention of the Uighur genocide, which several Conservatives have investigated as part of the China Research Group.
Penny Mourdant
Penny Mourdant is the candidate who has come 2nd in all of the hustings with MPs. At one point, she was the bookies’ favourite to win the leadership contest, though her chances have fallen considerably as of late. In one of the hustings, she actually saw her support slip by one vote.
Several of Mourdant’s supporters have complained about this contest being fought dirty, with criticism in the press based on Mourdant’s experience in a variety of positions (both in government and jobs she held before becoming an MP), her statements on trans people and her actions with regards to the Muslim Council of Britain.
Mourdant has been criticised by people she worked with over several decades as being lazy, incompetent and lacking leadership qualities. She has also been criticised for her position on trans women, being accused of being ‘woke’ by people like Kemi Badenoch. Whilst the trans issue is divisive within the party, what concerns many people is the fact that her story on what she said and supported whilst Equalities Minister appears to have changed, which makes her seem untrustworthy.
Mourdant has also been criticised for meeting met the leader of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation subject to a government boycott since 2009, when the Deputy Secretary General of the MCB signed the Istanbul declaration which implores “Islamic Nation” to oppose by any means all individuals deemed supportive of the “Zionist enemy”. The MCB is alleged to be an anti-Semitic organisation, as it has not condemned terrorism by Muslims against Israelis in Israel or the Palestinian territories. There are also alleged links between the MCB and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Despite these controversies, Mourdant has tried to show herself as a tough future leader, for example mentioning her experience as a Naval Reservist. She has a voting record on foreign policy to back this up, with Hawkish support for intervention in the Middle East as well as a tough stance on sending refugees to camps in Rwanda as well as policies that try to restrict people smuggling. This is not exceptional within the Conservative Party, as all the candidates supported the Rwanda refugee scheme.
It will be interesting to see whether Mourdant will be successful in getting through to the next round or whether the media hits on her have taken a toll. Mourdant’s policies on the environment, where she pledges to move to renewable energy as a way to make Britain greener but also increase Britain’s energy independence might come under scrutiny as people question whether in the short term imports of fossil fuels would be necessary in order to keep fuel affordable. It is possible that in general Mourdant will be seen as too ‘woke’ for the Conservative Party.
Liz Truss
Liz Truss’ campaign so far can be determined by the constant promise that this round is the round that she will overtake Penny Mourdant and move from 3rd to 2nd. Of course, this is the final round so it is very much a case of now or never. There are murmurings that Truss might be able to pull it off and be the candidate who opposes Sunak on the ballot – she has that precious commodity; momentum. She also seems like the candidate most likely to pick up support from those who previously supported Badenoch, and has already tried to appeal to Badenoch’s supporters.
Liz Truss has tried to show herself off as Thatcher’s heir, which is a frequent ploy by wannabe Conservative Party leaders. This is not just done through her questionable fashion choices, but also by wanting to appear tough on foreign policy issues. She has argued that Russia should be pushed back from all of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. She has also supported raising defence spending to 3%, which exceeds the demands of NATO, and this seems like a way to project the strength of Britain and show that the NATO alliance still holds weight after a nervous start to 2022.
Truss has been accused of neglecting climate change while Trade and Foreign secretary, for example willing to go back on climate promises in order to secure a trade deal with Australia. She has also recently called for a “temporary moratorium on the green energy levy”. However, she has still pledged to get Britain to be carbon-neutral by 2050, even if she might make some tweaks to previous plans.
Truss has also tried to position herself as the most pro-Brexit candidate, with support from ardent Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mogg helping her to secure this reputation. This is ironic, as she supported Remain at the time of the 2016 referendum but now claims to be a born-again Brexiteer. Brexit credentials are still important within the Conservative Party, and the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol is yet to be settled. It is possible that a Truss premiership would continue to isolate Britain from the European Union.
Final Thoughts
The final three candidates are those that you would have likely picked to get this far from the original eleven who put their names forward. The question of the final two is trickier to predict, though one would think it is a competition between Truss and Mourdant for who gets to compete with Sunak.
However Sunak has still been unable to secure a third of MPs’ support, which is what he needs to guarantee a spot in the top two. Predicting Conservative Party leadership elections has never been easy, with lots of backroom dealing and already the accusations are flying of vote lending from Sunak’s camp to both of the candidates. I would assume there are twists and turns left in this contest.
