The Ukraine War has escalated since Russia’s declaration of the annexation of four predominantly Russian speaking Ukrainian regions. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukrainian attacks in those regions would be considered aggression against Russia. In view of Russia’s annexation, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to engage in any putative peace negotiations. The peace dialogue seems far away from the current situation.

Referendums in the Eastern Region of Ukraine

Ukraine has thus refused to hold peace talks because Russia declared victories in referendums in the eastern regions of Ukraine. While Russia retreated from some of northeastern Ukraine in early September, Russian-backed separatists held referendums on joining Russia in four regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. The four regions make up more than 15 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

Even as the Russian troops have been pushed back by Ukraine forces, Russia President Vladimir Putin has still annexed the four regions and declared them to be Russian territory. After Russia proclaimed the annexation of the Ukraine territory, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky went still further and said that as long as President Vladimir Putin was in power, Ukraine would not hold negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, He announced that Ukraine applied for fast-track membership of NATO in response to Russia’s move.

The referendum was of course held under unstable conditions. The United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, stated the results of referendums that have been held during the active armed conflict in Ukraine cannot represent a genuine expression of the popular will. The United Nations political and peacebuilding official censured Russia’s “sham referenda”.

On the 10th of October, the UN General Assembly issued a draft Council resolution that would have declared that the referendums taken in parts of four regions are neither valid nor change the basis of the status of these regions of Ukraine. It means the UN General Assembly (but not the Security Council) denied any annexation by the Russian Federation.

Explosion on the Kerch Bridge

The Kerch Bridge, linking the Crimea peninsula and the Russian mainland was damaged in an explosion on October 8th. It is not only a vital connection between Crimea and Russia but also a symbol of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the explosion was an act of terrorism carried out by the Ukraine Special Service.

In response to the explosion on the Kerch Bridge, Russia launched a wave of missile strikes across Ukraine. The bombardment in Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolayiv, and especially Zaporizhzhia caused serious damage. Huge damage has also been caused by Ukraine’s artillery bombardment of Russian occupied territory and refugee numbers are increasing on both sides. Although Moscow claimed its targets were military, energy and communication hubs, evidence of the damage showed that civilian infrastructure and buildings were hit across Ukraine, as indeed has been caused in Russian held territory by Ukraine’s artillery strikes. However the large-scale air attacks aroused condemnation from the international community and the UN.

The development of the Ukraine War: Russia’s Perspective

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has lasted for eight months. The special military operation has dragged on longer than Moscow expected. Initially, Russia consolidated its power in the East of Ukraine and achieved some gains. However, the Ukrainian counterattack has made progress in the east since early August. With advanced weaponry, training, and intelligence resources from the United States, EU countries, and NATO allies, Russia has encountered a massive setback.

President Vladimir Putin also has to face domestic problems, including protests and attacks on draft centres across Russia caused by the announcement of Russia’s mobilisation order. The mobilization that has brought the war closer to many Russians triggered people’s anxiety. While the protests were cracked down on by the authorities, the political fallout of the mobilisation could significantly weaken President Putin’s popularity and increase tension among various factions in the political elite.

The development of Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Perspective

Since the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine on February 24th 2022, almost 5.5 million civilians have fled to neighboring countries to seek shelter. Ukrainian forces have made progress against Russia in the southern part of Ukraine recently.

As the wave of missile strikes hit Ukraine, US president Joe Biden pledged continued support necessary for Ukrainian forces, including new security assistance. Besides, members of the Group of seven (G7) vowed to provide financial, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support as long as the war takes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for more sanctions to press Russia in response to “a new wave of terror” after the meeting with G7. Support from the West would bring Ukraine to an advantaged position on battlefield and make the conflict become a war of attrition.

Russia’s FSB is investigating the Kerch Bridge attack. Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian intelligence services, said ‘We are not going to comment on their latest announcements on the Kerch Bridge attack because it is fake structures which serve the Putin regime’.

On October 13th, the UN Assembly demanded that Russian reverse its decision of annexation with 143 votes in favour, 5 against, and 35 abstentions. If Russia is willing to soften its stance on the annexation, it would bring Ukraine back to peace talks. However,  it is difficult to expect Russia to shift its stance on the annexation after the explosion on the Kerch Bridge.

Peace Talks in Turkey

Turkey has urged a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine though both parties were moving away from peace talks. In view of the current situation, the protagonists are more likely to hold mediated talks with a third party rather than direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. Regarding the possibility of hosting talks between Russia and the West, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister said that Moscow was willing to engage in talks with the West countries on ways to end the conflict in Ukraine. He stressed the dialogue comes after the setback on the battlefield since the start of September that has given the initiative of conflict in favour of Ukraine. The meeting between Russia and Turkey this week is expected to mention restarting negotiations and how to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.