NCF Research Officer Alex Joerres delivers an oral intervention to the United Nations Human Rights Council 52nd session, Item 4. Alex addresses the United Nations in regard to the status of Ukraine and the need of initiating peace talks with The Russian Federation.
Russia-Ukraine War: Alex’s Oral Statement
Transcript
The Next Century Foundation is gravely concerned by the possibility of total destruction in Ukraine.
The Russian Federation has set out a long-term budget to increase military personnel numbers to 1.5 million by 2026 and has pledged over 30% of its entire 2023 budget to defence and security costs.
The Kremlin has already reinforced their military presence along their border with Finland, while NATO countries are delivering tanks, training, armaments and now potentially fighter jets to be given in aid to Ukraine. The Russian Defence Minister has warned that such a move would make NATO a ‘direct party to the conflict’. The situation is not helped by the fact that the United States of America has suggested that Ukraine attempt to retake the Crimean peninsula. Further mobilisation of both Russia and NATO-sponsored Ukraine would considerably reduce any chance of open peace talks and could be viewed as acts of aggression on both sides.
We welcome the UN Secretary General’s statement in which he recommits the UN to the UN Charter – offering a new approach to peace and making the right to peace an obligation. We recommend that peace talks should be prioritised and note that there is an international risk to human rights with the direct involvement in the conflict of other European countries. Russia and Ukraine, and NATO, should step aside from war and promote peace. Parties to the conflict should use existing security frameworks such as The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Council of Europe to allow for peace talks to resume. More of the international funding should be redirected in humanitarian aid because as the conflict escalates, more Russian and Ukrainian lives are put at risk.
One Response
The Ukrainian leadership has been able to fight the Russians and inflict on them devastating & catastrophic strategic losses on the battlefield. With the capture of Kherson the Ukrainians dealt the Russians biggest blow and setback as this was the first greatest strategic loss for Putin and the Russian military. The battle of Bakhmut is the second greatest defeat of the Russian army and at this it does not matter (strategically) to keep defending Bakhmut by the Ukrainians as they had been able to inflict massive casualties on the Wagner militia and the Russian armed forces. These groups can take over the remainder of the city, but the Ukrainians have strategically won this battle too. The Ukrainians have killed tens of thousands of Russian invaders around the city of Bakhmut, which is not strategically as important for the Ukrainians to keep defending at this time.
Within next several weeks, once the wet ground gets dry and with Spring it becomes more solid, the Ukrainians will be able to wage a massive counterattack involving and utilizing the newly delivered western tanks such as Challenger and Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley, Stryker, AMX-10 and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. These battle tanks and vehicles have much more capabilities and superior firepower, high tech options vs. the Russian equipment. If Ukraine will have enough number of the tanks and fighting vehicles, they should be able to start a massive counterattack relatively soon and liberate more of its occupied territories across Donbass, Luhansk and at a later stages Crimea as well.
Right now, the only strategy wanted war criminal Putin utilizes against Ukraine is to keep inflicting massive civilian casualties, terror and fear, destroying Ukrainian civil infrastructure and keep attacking these civilian targets to inflict more terror and leave the Ukrainians without electricity or water supply. It feels like Putin is utilizing the usual Russian military playbook he used in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea and Syria: win the war by spilling more civilian blood, inflict more civilian terror and keep committing more war crimes to further inflict more fear and terror.
Hopefully the NATO members, the US especially will be able to throw in more weaponry, especially the F-16 fighter jets, hopefully higher range MGM-140 ATACMS rockets, counter rocket C-RAM weapons systems to better fight the Iranian drones and more for air defenses to counter the Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. The advanced Western fighter jets will be a vital tool to win this war, without these fighters the we are looking into a more prolonged war, that might last few more years. The F-16 fighter jets can provide important offensive capabilities and support the ground force efforts.
If Ukraine gets all the weaponry and equipment it needs, the Ukrainian armed forces should be able to clear Donbass and Lugansk within this year, Crimea most likely will also be de-occupied sometime in 2024. However, with the Russian defeat the Western powers should force the Russian Federation to de-occupy and leave all occupied territories of Moldova, Georgian regions of Abkhazia and Samachablo (so called South Ossetia) and Nagorno-Karabakh. Ukraine will be victorious and the Russian imperialism will once again be defeated. With the Ukrainian victory the world will forever destroy Russia’s imperialistic ambitions, Russian nationalism and this will save future generations from future wars and peace will definitely follow.