Immigration commands more attention than any other issue in British politics, yet the figures are more complicated than either side of the debate admits. With Andy Burnham now in Number Ten and Reform UK just ahead of Labour in the polls, each major party has taken its stance. This guide explains what the latest numbers do – and do not – show, where each of the five main parties stands, and what their plans would mean in practice.

The debate is deeply polarised. On the right, the conversation centres on mass deportations and withdrawal from international human rights law. On the left, parties are torn between defending openness and responding to voters who want lower numbers

Caught in the middle are the people. Workers, students, families and those fleeing persecution – too often reduced to the labels of ‘immigrant’, ‘refugee’ and ‘asylum seeker’.

The Numbers

Almost every measure is down on a year ago – but most remain above pre-pandemic levels.

• Arrivals: 813,000 people moved to the UK long-term in 2025, down 20% on 2024. 642,000 people left, including 246,000 British citizens, resulting in net migration of 171,000, roughly half of the year before and close to its 2019 level of 184,000. This fall also reflects the visa restrictions introduced in 2024/25, and people who arrived during the 2021-23 surge now leaving the UK. The Migration Observatory cautions that it ‘will not necessarily be sustained long term’.
• Work and Study: in the year to June 2026, 235,000 work visas and 383,000 study visas were granted – down 18% and 11% from a year earlier, but still above the 185,000 and 253,000 granted in 2019.
• Asylum: 85,891 people claimed asylum in the year to June 2026 (main applicants and dependents). That is 21% fewer than the record high a year earlier, but still higher than any year between 2003 and 2022. Counting main applicants only, claims are more than double their 2019 level: 69,848 against 32,693.
• Backlog: the queue for a first decision on asylum claims has fallen to its lowest since 2019, but the appeals backlog has grown to over 90,000 cases, as refused applicants challenge their decisions.
• Small boats: crossings are falling, but the size of the fall depends on the dates you compare. In the 12 months to March 2026, arrivals were 3% higher than the year before. In the 12 months to June, they were 23% lower. So far in 2026, arrivals are down 42% on the same point last year. For perspective, just 1843 people crossed via small boat in 2019.

Public scepticism is rife. A 2026 poll by Number Cruncher Politics for British Future found that half the public believe migration has risen. Headline figures can mask the detail, and different comparisons can tell different stories – leaving room for each party to choose the figures that suit their message.

Where do Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens stand?

All five parties agree that the system is failing. Where they differ is in how clearly, and in what direction, they propose to fix it.

Labour

What’s happening now?

As the party in government, Labour is changing the rules. Since March 2026, refugees who claim asylum after arriving in the UK have been given temporary protection that is reviewed every 30 months, instead of a direct route to settlement. 

By contrast, refugees who come through official routes will be treated slightly more generously. On 28 September it reopened the UK Resettlement Scheme, prioritising Afghan women and girls and Palestinian refugees, and launching new sponsorship routes through charities, universities and employers. Numbers will be capped in the hundreds initially. Those who arrive this way get a five-year path to settlement, a deliberate incentive to use legal roues than small boats.

A new Immigration and Asylum Bill is going through Parliament. It would replace the current appeals tribunal with a new body designed to speed up decisions.

What they want  

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposal is ‘earned settlement’ – doubling the standard wait for permanent settlement from five to ten years, with stricter conditions on English language and benefit claims. The final policy is expected later this year. 

Labour will remain in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) but plans to review how the courts apply it in asylum cases.

The impact

Critics raise concerns of unintended consequences. The Institute for Public Policy Research argues that a longer wait for permanent settlement risks leaving migrants in ‘a near-perpetual state of insecurity’, to the detriment of integration.

The Home Affairs Committee has highlighted the ‘extremely difficult choice’ the changes pose for adult social care – a sector heavily reliant on migrant workers.

The new resettlement routes have been welcomed by refugee charities, but the Refugee Council warns that such routes ‘only work if they operate at scale, which means thousands of places, not hundreds’.

Conservatives

What’s happening now?

In opposition, the Conservatives have placed their immigration plans firmly to the right. Kemi Badenoch’s Borders Plan remains the central focus of the party’s policy.

What they want

The plan would take the UK out of the ECHR, repeal the Human Rights Act, and ban ‘irregular arrivals’ from claiming asylum.

A ‘Removals Force’ would deport 150,000 people a year, while migrants would wait ten years for settlement and a further five for citizenship.

The Impact

The targets are ambitious. In the year to June 2026, the UK returned 41,000 people, fewer than 10,000 of them through enforced removal. – barely more than the 8,060 in 2019. Removal is also expensive, especially when forced. In 2024/25, an enforced return cost an average of £48,800, compared with £4,300 for a voluntary one.

Leaving the ECHR would be legally complex, because large parts of the Good Friday Agreement rest upon it – it would likely face prolonged challenges in the courts.

Reform UK

What’s happening now?

Reform UK has been polling in the low-to-mid 20s, and immigration is its core focus.

What they want 

Nigel Farage’s party offers the most radical programme. It would deploy the Royal Navy to return small boats to France, leave the ECHR, and deport irregular migrants (those who arrive via unofficial routes) within five years.

It would also abolish Indefinite Leave to Remain – including for those who already hold it. They would replace it with five-year renewable visas and end access to benefits for non-citizens.

The impact

The Institute for Government argues that Reform’s proposals would make it ‘close to impossible to claim asylum in the UK’ and applying them to people already living here would be ‘highly contentious’. It also notes that a savings figure the party cited in support of its plans was challenged by the Office for Budget Responsibility and was later withdrawn.

Liberal Democrats

What’s happening now?

As the second largest opposition party, the Liberal Democrats have sought to turn principle into legislation. In 2025, they tabled an amendment that would have allowed asylum seekers to work after waiting three months for a decision, but it was voted down.

What they want 

They would lift the ban on working after three months, restore family reunion routes for refugees, end the use of asylum hotels by clearing the backlog, and tackle smuggling gangs through closer cooperation with European partners – and remain firmly in the ECHR.

The impact

The Liberal Democrats argue that their approach would allow those with valid claims to ‘work, integrate and contribute’, while those with no right to remain would be returned ‘swiftly’.

Their policy would be a significant shift. Asylum seekers currently wait twelve months before they can apply to work – more restrictive than many comparable countries.

Greens

What’s happening now?

Under Zack Polanski since September 2025, the Greens have positioned themselves as the most openly pro-migration party. At his first conference as leader, he told members that ‘migrants and refugees are welcome here’.

What they want

The party proposes to stop small boat crossings by creating safe and legal routes, and would allow asylum seekers to work ‘from the moment they arrive’.

The impact

The Greens argue that the right to work would help asylum seekers leave hotel accommodation, support themselves and integrate into local communities.

However, the Institute for Government notes that the party has offered little detail on how its approach would work in practice.

Polanski has also stepped back from an earlier, more open-door position.

The Choice Before Voters

On some measures, immigration is falling; on others, pressure remains high – and the public is unconvinced. Every party says the system needs fixing, and all five want to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels. Beyond that, the clearest policies sit at either end of the spectrum.

Reform UK offers a message of control. Fewer arrivals, more deportations, and an exit from the ECHR. The Greens offer the opposite: safe routes, the right to work, and an open welcome. Regardless of what voters make of them, both are easy to understand. However, clarity is not the same as feasibility. As the Institute for Government notes, both parties leave serious questions about how their plans would work in practice.

The parties in between have a harder task. Labour is in government, pairing tougher settlement rules with a newly reopened – but tightly capped – resettlement route. Its flagship settlement policy remains unfinished, and its message that net migration needs to fall further comes as net figures are already falling, while arrivals, asylum claims and the appeals backlog remain high. The Conservatives have a detailed plan, but one that closely mirrors Reform’s on the ECHR and deportations, leaving voters to ask what sets them apart. The Liberal Democrats are clear on fixing the asylum system but say far less about the overall level of migration they want. If the centre parties want a louder voice in this debate, they will need to set out a clearer account of what they want immigration to look like.

Whichever direction the country chooses, these are not abstract questions. They shape the lives of workers, students, families and those fleeing danger – people we cross paths with every day. In a debate so often driven by slogans and labels, we must look beyond the headlines, weigh the evidence, and keep human dignity at the heart of our society.

Featured image shows a flock of common cranes migrating over Djerba, Tunisia. Credit: Mohamed Fsili via Unsplash.